Ask the Monkey

Discussion in 'College Sports Talk' started by Number Monkey, Aug 14, 2015.

  1. Number Monkey

    Number Monkey Moderator

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    To date we've had feedback come in via twitter or email because the boards weren't either set up or I broke them or something. However, now that the crowd here is building, I figured it was time to start a thread for questions and the like. I try and react to posts when I have time, but odds are I miss a lot.

    So, going forward, if you have a question you'd like answered or a topic you'd like explored, please feel free to post it in this thread and I'll get to it when I can. I'm not going to promise an immediate answer, since The Fanatic has a quick trigger with the shock collar, but I will sort through this often. I'll either reply here or, if I'm getting the same type of question often or over multiple channels, I'll use it within an article.

    With that being said, fire away!

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  2. Number Monkey

    Number Monkey Moderator

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    I'm adding one here because I thought it was nice of someone to send to me. To paraphrase:

    "Is it ok if I copy and paste portions of your articles on boards or do you lose clicks?" ~Courteous in Coweta

    I have to admit, I had never thought about this, so thank you for the question. I won't lie, we're trying to build up the site, so any clicks we do receive help immensely, though not for advertising. It doesn't do us any good if people don't visit the site and the forums. We need to reach like minded people to join us here and share their view. However, at the end of the day, our goal is to build a community, not create click-bait.

    With that preface, please feel free to share anything you think helps you in your internet rage battles. My only request is you do two things:

    1 - Don't post the entire article, just the part that makes your case
    2 - Give credit with the quote, along with a link.

    Additionally, we're toying with branding the charts and graphs so it shows where they originated. Until that occurs though, please treat them like a quote if you cut and past the image URLs

    We don't want to recruit people to spam the interwebs, but as the saying goes, "all PR is good PR". As long as you're notating where the quote came from, people can go on their own and read more if they like. Making this a vibrant community will require a lot of word of mouth. Sharing content to help you stand down a poorly formed argument is a win-win in our book!
     
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  3. 84Cougars

    84Cougars Fan

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    Regarding your previous piece on financial support, do you plan on looking into how a school like BYU or others would fit? Maybe do a part 11 on the candidates?
     
  4. Number Monkey

    Number Monkey Moderator

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    The expansion pieces were actually written to find a way to compare candidates. If you look at the last paragraph of each I talk about how you'd quantify schools within that specific category. The next step of the project will be to do just that...school by school.
     
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  5. Go Big Red

    Go Big Red Season Ticket Holder

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    Ask the Horn fan is more like it. lol
     
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  6. SoonerManiac

    SoonerManiac Fanatic

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    Hornfan or not, he make his point with facts and statistics instead of spewing BS propaganda posted all over the interwebs.
     
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  7. JayhawkInVegas

    JayhawkInVegas Fanatic

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    GBR, not everybody who says something critical of the Huskers move to the Big Ten is a Horn fan. Otherwise the entire world would be Horn fans,
     
  8. JayhawkInVegas

    JayhawkInVegas Fanatic

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    Question for the Monkey. Can I use your last article to troll TOS site's ACC and PAC trolls mercilessly? Make it seem much more dire than it is? Thanks and I will listen off air.
     
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  9. Number Monkey

    Number Monkey Moderator

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    How you choose to use it is completely up to you
     
  10. Storm Chaser

    Storm Chaser Season Ticket Holder

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    L2 :haha

    So glad BYU whiffed and we didn't end up in the AAC via the Big East. We would be just like Houston now.

    Somebody brought up in another thread if you would be ranking schools like TCU, KSU and ISU and seeing how they would compare as candidates for the Big 12. I would be curious how some of our smaller schools stack up to, say, Cincinnati. Not even sure if that is possible.
     
  11. Number Monkey

    Number Monkey Moderator

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    Yes, I'm actually applying the criteria to every fbs school I can locate info, including setting a Big 12 baseline. I may not write about every school, however.
     
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  12. PokesRx

    PokesRx Booster

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    Outside of the P3 and L2 thing, I don't think you are trolling at all. They do have a serious demographic problem. Those guys are kidding themselves.
     
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  13. Glock 87

    Glock 87 Booster

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    Don't take this the wrong way, because I love the series, but why look at individual schools when the whole gist of your series was explaining how expanding with anything other than a P5 doesn't make sense. I assume none of them would qualify, or am I wrong?
     
  14. Number Monkey

    Number Monkey Moderator

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    While that is my belief, it is not the standard message. Seeing everything side by side tends to make it more clear.

    That and I'm curious. :nana
     
  15. Salt Lake Sooner

    Salt Lake Sooner Season Ticket Holder

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    If you were going to guess, based on your study, what teams that we have now would not be invited to a P5? I am guessing Baylor and TCU would be on the list which seems like a bad decision. OSU, KSU, ISU and possibly Tech all probably wouldn't meet the criteria so it is a pretty high bar.
     
  16. Buckwheat Flowers

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    I have a subject for you Mr. Monkey. I would like to see some numbers on how difficult it is for a school to win it's first national championship in football and/or basketball. How many first time winners were there in the last 20, 30, 50 years. Obviously, WVU hasn't won it all in either sport, so I would like to get some kind of feel on if I'll live to see one. Baylor fans would want to know too, if they had any fans.
     
  17. PatrickMcHorn

    PatrickMcHorn Season Ticket Holder

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    Alright Monkey, if that's even your real name...

    I'd like to see an admitted informed speculation on what it will all look like when the Big 12 takes it's entire inventory to bid for the first time in its history in 10 years. How many games are in tier 1? Does the Big 12 definition of third tier expand its collective inventory? What is the impact of streaming in how the Big 12 divides its inventory? Do you still see backloaded guaranteed contracts, or is it more likely that there'll be a ratings bonus type of arrangement?
     
  18. Number Monkey

    Number Monkey Moderator

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    I like this one...I've added it to the queue
     
  19. Number Monkey

    Number Monkey Moderator

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    This is really difficult to forecast at this time. Who am I kidding, it is difficult to forecast what the Big Ten's negotiation is going to do in 2017, looking at 2024 is nearly impossible this far out. However, there are some things to consider:

    First, "backloaded" contracts are not performance contracts, like paying a QB less now and more in five years. The escalation is due to the inflationary value of money. As the country grows, more money is added to the economy, to the tune of about 3% a year. This means if you bought a gallon of milk for $4.50 today, with everything being the same, it will cost you about $4.64 next year. Making 3% more a year doesn't get you more milk, it just provides you the same value year over year. Normally this isn't a big deal because you don't buy milk on a contract. However, networks want to lock up content for 5+ years so they can plan around it. If the content providers accepted a flat fee per year (let's say $100M) then by the time the contract is over they'd be making less than when they started. Using that same 3% example, $100M today has the same value as $134M in ten years. That's why the contracts increase per year, so the conferences can purchase the same amount of milk as the year before, not because they are more valuable than the year before.

    This will come into play with the Big Ten's deal too. If you look at someone's media contract the amount reported is for the middle of the contract. At the beginning they will be paid less and they'll get more at the end. LHN increases payments about 3.95% per year, so if the Big Ten's deal was reported at $100M a year, they made $82M in the first year and would be making $120M in 2016. It also means if their next ten year contract had no raises, if they just kept the same value like it was an additional ten years on the current contract, it would be reported as a $146M deal in 2017, or a 46% raise. With the new content they've added (12 games with Nebraska/Maryland/Rutgers, the other three homes each go to BTN) it is likely that they'll be paid twice what they made in the last contract, which is the same value over all...if that makes sense.

    This style of pay probably won't change too much, since whether they are streaming content or putting it on a cable channel a distributor is buying it. The conferences don't care as much about how the distributors monetize it, they want to be able to budget revenue. These are universities remember, not individual investors who could take a big win one year at the risk of a bad loss. Cash in hand is always better.

    Second, the value of the Big 12's situation in 2024 is that they have leverage for once. When they went through the process a few years ago, there wasn't a threat to either Fox nor ESPN on if they would have inventory or not. There was no bidding war. The conversation was more revaluing the content with an extension and figuring out the best way share it over the two partners. The biggest aspect of it may have been adding more inventory to the mix. Prior to this deal getting six games on TV in a year was unheard of unless you were vying for a championship. Typically you saw four of your games on the tube in a year, now it is all but one. That increase in inventory is what is driving the bus within these larger contracts.

    As for T1, that will still remain important. In general, the conferences want as many of their games in front of the most amount of people as possible. Exposure is worth far more to them than revenue. And, even if a lot of cable channels are no longer subsidized like today, we'll still have the major players. I'd imagine the T1-2 part of the conversation doesn't change too much. You'll still see about 25% of the games on T1, unless everyone in the conference forgets how to play football.

    Lastly, these contracts generally shy away from things like ratings bonuses. This is going to cause some eyerolls, but the primary drivers in high ratings are two things; something being at stake and marketing. The conferences cannot control the marketing a distributor does, which means one of the major drivers is out of their control. They have no incentive to agree to a ratings bonus, since they are the beneficiary of said bonus anyway. One of the most obvious examples of this is the SEC on CBS. The SEC isn't paid more for those games, like you'd imagine they'd be when looking at the ratings. However, they are most definitely advantaged by the gigantic amount of marketing that CBS puts out to support the games.
     
  20. NJAggie

    NJAggie Fanatic

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    Please No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
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