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Discussion in 'College Sports Talk' started by GoldRusher, May 18, 2017.
That column explains why it would be a good move on the Big 12's part to buy equity in the PACN. Buying PACN equity would eliminate the dependence on ESPN, Fox, etc. to deliver P12/B12 content and also provide leverage in new T1/T2 contract negotiations. LHN is the biggest obstacle to that happening but given ESPN's issues, Disney probably wouldn't mind settling with Texas on early termination of that contract.
That or morphing it into the ACC network with Texas and Notre Dame joining the ACC as full members...
No doubt that is a plausible scenario and that is where Texas has a decision to make. Being an extreme geographic outlier in the ACC and partnered 100% (with no equity) with a provider (ESPN) whose existing business model and future focus on college athletics is in question. Or continue being engaged with current/in-state/contiguous conference members and being an equity partner of a network (PACN) that could be customized into a regional Texas-branded network under the PACN region distro model and a network that is already well positioned for streaming and linear network delivery. That decision between the two options could be made within the next 12 to 24 months.
Or, the more likely UT process of clinging to their "network" until it's pried from their fingers at the end of the contract.
Given all the talk lately, I'd guess the Big 12 has 3-5 years to position itself as a place where OU might want to stay long term. One of the B1G insiders tweet stormed the other day that the B1G expects to invite KU at the end of the current deal and that OU is the preferred partner to 16. But he said the B1G expects ESPN to counter w/r/t OU by offering OU and OSU SEC spots together.
I'd say we have until 2023, and then things start moving. OU & OSU to SEC is most probable.
I saw that series of tweets as well. He also ruled out Texas joining the B10.
So what does the OU camp think about this info (regardless of its validity)? I am assuming Boren's preference would be the B10 although I am not convinced the B10 would offer OU without AAU status.. Will Boren be around when and if a B10, SEC or P12 offer comes? What is Castiglione's and other BMBs' preference out of those 3 conferences?
Whatever happens, I hope it gets resolved by YE 2019 well in advance of GOR expiration so B12 schools don't get significantly dinged in recruiting circles with conference affiliation uncertainty.
Best scenario to me remains the B12 buying PACN equity and staying fully intact with 10 schools or largely intact with 8 schools via a merger/alliance. And it takes 8 to blow up the B12 GOR.
If OU and OKst join the SEC, Texas goes to the ACC or P12, the B10 will need a 16th school in addition to KU and ISU is the only AAU and geographic alternative unless Mizzou bolts the SEC and I doubt that happens.
I would say if OU and OSU could get everyone else to pay into the PACN that would be their preference, and work out a merger or partnership. I agree with you that a partnership with them is best for everyone. Reality says that OU and OSU will be heading to the SEC in 2024 or 2025.
The window Boren and a few other people have used is 3-5 years. That seems early to me but it's the number they keep throwing around. The biggest thing that will happen five years from now is that the B1G and probably the PAC will start negotiating their new deals. And OU's Tier 3 deal with FOX will expire. The new CBS deal with the SEC will be renegotiated around that time, too.
If ESecPN countered an OU invite to the B1G by inviting both OU and OSU to the SEC, I think the Sooners and Cowboys would have a really hard time turning that down no matter what else ends up on the table.
I think OU and OSU to the SEC is the long term vision of the SEC. It would allow them to balance out the divisions by moving Bama and Auburn to the East while not really hurting them in terms of cross division rivals (really just LSU-Bama to protect). It would also keep them in 8 team divisions so even if they go to 9 conference games, they will still have a scheduling advantage that helps their middle of the pack and top end teams by not playing each other.
Cowherd - on his way out the door from ESPN - said OU/OSU to the SEC and a group of Texas schools to the PAC was the plan. For whatever that's worth.
West: OU, LSU, A&M, Arkansas, OK State, Ole Miss, Missouri, Miss State
East: Bama, UGA, UF, Tennessee, Auburn, S. Carolina, Kentucky, Vandy
Those divisions aren't as unbalanced as they'd seem on first blush. They kind of line up well. East fanbases are a little bit larger. The big difference is tied up in A&M vs. Florida. Similar resources, similar large fanbases, similar home state recruiting pool, dissimilar performance.
I think the original SEC schools (LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State) would complain the most.
Yeah, I'd not be shocked if they wound up putting OU in the West and OSU in the East to avoid those issues.
I think those SEC divisions balance out well both geographically and competitively while preserving in-state rivalries as well as UGA-UF and Tenn-UK. LSU-Bama would be lost annually but that is made up by annual Bama/UF and Bama/UGA games. This assumes rational scheduling of 7 division games plus two non-division games which would be fully rotated on a 4 yr basis.
If you assume Baylor's "death penalty" is a transition to G5, the other 3 P4 conferences would logically shake out as follows if they also go to 16 teams each as rumored:
ACC North: Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Louisville, West Virginia, Notre Dame
ACC South: North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami FL, Florida State, Georgia Tech
(ND keeps their long standing rivalry games with USC and Navy if they choose. Probably ditch Stanford)
B10 East: Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Purdue, Indiana
B10 West: Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa State
(B10 adds two AAU schools and keeps geographically intact. Historical competitive imbalance between East and West is resolved to some extent if Illinois, Minnesota and Nebraska ever get their acts together and quit underschieving)
PAC 16 West: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC
PAC 16 East: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas St
(PAC 8 schools are reunited for round robin play. If Pac12 schools are averse to TCU's loose Disciples of Christ affiliation, TCU is replaced with Colorado State, the top available public academic school in the region)
To mitigate lawsuits from G5 schools for no P4 playoff access, the networks band together and formulate a G5 8 or 16 team playoff system utilizing three existing bowls as venues for the two semi-final games and championship game. The G5 schools get more money and exposure out of the deal than the existing system which makes it nearly impossible for a G5 program to qualify under the existing CFP system. Also, 3 bowl games get significantly more compelling.
Your assumption that Baylor gets a "death penalty" is still hysterical to me when they are coming from an Iowa State fan. Baylor is in the middle of a massive scandal, yes, but we STILL have higher revenue and better on field results than Iowa State in virtually every sport. Take off the blinders. neither one of us is in a great position, but if it came down to a choice between the two, you may not like the answer.
ISU's attendance is better than Baylor in both FB and BB and BU has yet to win a B12 MBB title. BU's recent results in FB have been great but have obviously come at an extreme and damaging cost.
The question for BU is who will take them? The Pac12, B10 and ACC won't touch them. If OU goes to the SEC, OKSt is going along with them. If the B10 adds KU, they need a 16th school and ISU fits their AAU and geographic criteria as opposed to KSU, BU, WV, TT and TCU.
I hope the B12 stays intact with 10 or 12 schools but I think the odds of that happening are less than 50%. The networks don't want to fund the addition of two new B12 schools and who knows if UT or OU want to stay put?
I agree ISU is not in a favorable position but I don't think a group of Presidents will conspire to exclude any existing P5 school from future realignment to P4. The lone possible exception is Baylor for obvious reasons.
I don't see the OU/OSU to the SEC move coming to pass. OU yes but I don't see the draw of having 2 teams from Oklahoma, that hasn't been the SEC's preference in their last few moves and they seem to have a one school per state rule now so.. Id be surprised if that happened.
Lol, it's the off-season in full swing again.
Jesus, I go dormant for a bit and I come back and its 2016.......
All the hypothesizing is useless. 5 years is long time in this ever changing market. I think the fact that the conference members still have their Tier 3 rights is going to play a role in all of this by then.